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Bob Brinker Update for December 2005

© Kirk Lindstrom

Bob Brinker Update for 12/24/05

In our Bob Brinker Free Discussion Forum we've been talking about Bob Brinker's market timing model. He uses this in his "Marketimer Newsletter" for predicting the stock market in the months ahead. On recent shows he has been recommended I Bonds for purchase. I Bonds are currently paying 6.73%. Bob Brinker is currently bullish (as of 12/30/05) and has his model portfolios fully invested in the mutual funds he recommends. He recommends a dollar cost average approach for new money at the current market level.

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Is Bob Brinker Still Bullish?

Yes, but he says we are in a cyclical bull market inside a larger secular bear market. On December 23, 2005, Mark Hulbert of CBS MarketWatch wrote:

As I read the spate of stock market forecasts that appear around this time every year, I am reminded of Warren's Buffett's classic line that one of the primary purposes of stock market forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good.

I nevertheless am willing to suspend my skepticism when it comes to the forecasts of the six newsletters that rank highest on the Hulbert Financial Digest's Newsletter Honor Roll for 2006.

Bob Brinker's Marketimer. Editor Bob Brinker is bullish. In his most recent issue, he wrote: "We anticipate additional stock market gains as this cyclical bull market continues. Our minimum target price level for the S&P 500 index (SPX=$1,268.12) is the mid-1300's range."

So, with the S&P500 at 1268, this means Bob is predicting gains of a minimum of 6.5%. With Vanguard's risk free GNMA fund (VFIIX) yielding 4.82%, I'm guessing that Brinker is expecting much higher gains or he'd not risk being fully invested for only a 1.7% premium over his favorite GNMA fund.

David Korn on Brinker's Bullishness

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